Exactly how do we have a war over Taiwan, when we have stated, since Nixon did in Beijing with Mao, that Taiwan is a clear part of China? A bit hard to walk that back, especially as Taiwan has never declared independence.
If a war were to happen, just look at the supply lines to figure out who wins and who loses. As the saying goes, amateurs study strategies; professionals study logistics. I have seen studies stating we would be out of missiles in as little as two weeks in a war with China (speaking non-nuclear, obviously).
I am not sure your assessment of China is accurate. Two people I follow with close ties to China, including Louis Vincent Gave, have very different views since China started easing. The western media spends a lot of time denigrating China but I’m not sure their views are accurate.
There’s potential fun in the meantime. The Hang Seng Index (the Hong Kong market where the four largest banks in the world are listed) is up 30% in the last month. Whee!
"Beijing knows this, they know the kinetic history of the Chinese masses when they're angry . . ."
They can get angry all they want, but guess who owns all the guns. Hint, it isn't the common people. They aren't afraid to kill them if things get out of hand. Remember Tiananmen Square.
I watch several China commenters & they have interesting views on Xi & the economy. Lei's Real Talk a Chinese immigrant says Xi isn't worried about lack of jobs or consumer satisfaction. The CCP only cared that their economy has reached a point that they have industrial capacity to switch to a wartime production. They are utterly indifferent to economic downturn as far as "the people's" welfare.
“and if they panic hard enough they may reach for a war to both distract the population and to clamp down on dissent.”
I think a war would suit both the CCP and the criminal cabal that has co-opted the US government. At this point, it looks inevitable.
Exactly how do we have a war over Taiwan, when we have stated, since Nixon did in Beijing with Mao, that Taiwan is a clear part of China? A bit hard to walk that back, especially as Taiwan has never declared independence.
If a war were to happen, just look at the supply lines to figure out who wins and who loses. As the saying goes, amateurs study strategies; professionals study logistics. I have seen studies stating we would be out of missiles in as little as two weeks in a war with China (speaking non-nuclear, obviously).
I don't subscribe (yet) but I really like your articles -- they're meaty and to the point.
I am not sure your assessment of China is accurate. Two people I follow with close ties to China, including Louis Vincent Gave, have very different views since China started easing. The western media spends a lot of time denigrating China but I’m not sure their views are accurate.
There’s potential fun in the meantime. The Hang Seng Index (the Hong Kong market where the four largest banks in the world are listed) is up 30% in the last month. Whee!
"Beijing knows this, they know the kinetic history of the Chinese masses when they're angry . . ."
They can get angry all they want, but guess who owns all the guns. Hint, it isn't the common people. They aren't afraid to kill them if things get out of hand. Remember Tiananmen Square.
I watch several China commenters & they have interesting views on Xi & the economy. Lei's Real Talk a Chinese immigrant says Xi isn't worried about lack of jobs or consumer satisfaction. The CCP only cared that their economy has reached a point that they have industrial capacity to switch to a wartime production. They are utterly indifferent to economic downturn as far as "the people's" welfare.
This may be true as long as Xi, and his govt can suppress social unrest that could arise from an economic downturn that is deep and long lasting.