21 Comments

I thought the definition of recession was two quarters of negative gdp growth

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Depends on who's defining it this week for their own benefit.

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Exactly and in the USA anybody can come up with their own definition

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This is a very disappointing post, Peter.

Why are you joining this "China is the enemy" narrative the politicians and mainstream media are posting daily?

If you took your criteria at scale you could write this same article about at least 30 countries around the would and none are accused of distracting from their economic issues by starting a war.

I respect you but am shocked that you seem to be falling for this short-term stuff the G7 is looking at, especially since you are such a student of history.

Among a large quantity of gems there are always a few bad ones. I think this one counts as a bad one.

Let's get back to gems next week

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He is not advocating, just predicting. There's a big difference between the two.

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I did not say he is advocating

Its is a baseless prediction

Going by that he could say this of any economy in trouble

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However, if we stop importing crap from China the will not have the dough to fight a war.

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WWIII, here we come 😞

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Before it will ever happens, the Chinese and Saudis will declare that they no longer accept worthless-Fed-printed-toilet-paper-shitty greenbacks for their goods and oil.

Then Americans will know what inflation really taste like.

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Yes, when the Dollar is no longer the international reserve currency, we will really see inflation. Ask the UK how the loss of reserve currency feels.

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What? How can that be when 90% of whatever we buy comes from China?

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90% of sweet FA (these days) doesn't add up to much.

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Because no one looks on online for American alternatives. They just buy it from ChinaMart and off they go. We are now down to one factory making denim in America after the second recently closed. Buy American and help other Americans make our clothes or soon we won't have this option.

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"China could be in for a bumpy ride. And if it gets desperate and needs a nationalist distraction, it could pull Taiwan -- and America -- into the storm."

We do not have a treaty to defend Taiwan, despite what King Biden said. Bottom line, once the shooting starts, we will stay out. We really don't want an aircraft carrier at the bottom of the Pacific. Not to mention we have eliminated a lot of our surplus munition stocks by giving them to Ukraine and so will have to wait for years to get our stocks back up to regular levels.

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In such terribly circumstances, than it is far more plausible to expect China to be in want of taking control of Taiwan, in hopes of capturing as much of its wealth, as possible.

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Just think that whatever policy happens is intentional to destroy Murica.

Very obvious to me.

Most of our freedom comes from being debt free until tyrannical governments seize control. The path is clear and obvious. That is what is being done…

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What would the current U.S. administration do if China was to use Taiwan as a distraction for its internal economic problems. I have some ideas as to what it might do but interested in what you think.

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Also, don't we (the chip industry) get a majority of the chips from Taiwan?

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King Biden has talked big, but let's face it, our munition stocks are extremely low as we dipped into them to aid Ukraine. Not to mention, we have to go all the way across the Pacific and China is in their backyard. They say professional soldiers talk logistics. The Chinese lines of supply will be extremely short; ours would be extremely long. We would be absolute fools to get involved.

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I agree but then again the Biden administration (AKA Kamala) has done a number of foolish things over the last almost 4 years. Would a Kamala administration or a Trump administration be more or less likely to get us involved?

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I give them equal chances. Remember, Trump fired cruise missiles at Syria, who did nothing to us (and was an unconstitutional act of war) and he was the first to send offensive weapons to Ukraine.

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