Interesting viewpoint - thanks. It's really hard to predict the economy - there are so many opposing forces. Many of the new proposed policies are, like you said, good in the long term, but not so good in the short term. For example, laying off thousands of federal employees would be great for the long term, but it would sure increase unemployment in the short term, which would be a force for recession. In fact, any decrease in spending and subsidies, although the right thing to do, will be recessionary in the short run. I might miss out on further stock gains, but at my age (83) I'd better stick with conservative, fairly priced companies that pay dividends, and try to play it safe.
I found this guy in a clip in Dan Bongino’s podcast and decided to check him out. I’m in favor of anyone who truthfully talks about the economy and what Trump’s economic transformation of our government means for us. Like many people I don’t know much about finances and need someone to clarify it for me. Teaching economics and civics should be a prerequisite in our K thru 12 schools. When I was in high school so many years ago females were taught hone economics and males had shop. Nothing taught regarding finance or civics.
Peter. I read your article in ET in Bank Deregulation, very good stuff and agree. I have my own take on things, esp the insane stock market and fake “low” inflation. If either of us is half right, we are in big trouble. I'm a bit more gloomy and conspiratorial.
Good point about making it $3 Tril in cuts rather than 2. I mean, if Musk fired 80% of X and is doing better, imagine firing at least 25% of current gov. 80% would be best! Let's go X style!
Also, persuade Americans to provide real service and goods to this country, not just lip service. It's funny how many podcasters just bs about doing this and that, but hardly any of them has provided a real good, product, service, etc., for the American economy. Hey guys, we get it, but America wasn't built on "Mr. Beast". For anyone interested in reading more cool stuff, you can check out https://livivan.medium.com/
Make it attractive to create a company in the USA. Remove incentives for illegal immigration. If someone commits a crime and is getting government support then reduce that support. We need people to be willing to work again and keep more of their wages.
Interesting how many of these companies USED to be American-owned. No more. The fact America only consumes and doesn't make much shows how far America has fallen. The middle class is shrinking as service jobs never pay like manufacturing jobs did.
The Chinese consumer is fast catching us; we don't see that as much because they consume a lot of products made in China.
Europe isn't having a war with the BRICS; Europe cut itself off from cheap Russian gas. Now they are paying much more for American gas and becoming uncompetitive in the process.
Apparently, Trump thinks he can threaten the BRICS+ countries into submission, but this will have the opposite effect. It just shows if you use the US Dollar, the US will threaten you, and in Russia's case, actually steal your assets. The US market isn't worth losing your sovereignty over; this is what brought BRICS+ about in the first place.
Lastly, the US consumer is severely ravaged by inflation; inflation is not going away as the US Government will continue to spend money they don't have and all fiat money eventually becomes worthless as politicians will always print.
I understand that our recent growth has been nothing more than debt money poured onto the economy which resulted in real inflation much higher than official numbers. Doesn’t it mean that in reality we’re already in a recession?
" . . .shrinking jobs for native born Americans. . ." Turns out Trump isn't that keen on hiring Americans having recently come swinging for H1-B Visas, which allow foreigners, mostly Indians, to come take high paying tech jobs rather than Americans. They claim there are not enough Americans, but the truth is, by having the Visa over the Indians, they get them to work 50-60 hours a week, which Americans won't do. Turns out Musk likes Indians taking American jobs too. Billionaires do not care a flip about Americans having jobs, just so they have cheap labor. The truth is out.
As for "Drill, Baby, Drill", no one is going to uncap wells already there until the price of oil makes it worthwhile. You can encourage all you want but until the price goes up and stays up, not much extra drilling and pumping is going to happen. This is Econ 101. Besides, Big Oil went to Congress and so now they can export crude oil (versus refined oil products previously) and so the American citizens won't see any cheaper prices at the pump. Of course, the GOP is all about Big Business, so this will never be reversed or even discussed.
What I see no where is the fact that America is the greatest magnet for the worlds manufacturers & producers of Retail Consumers Products.
Most have limited numbers of domestic consumers & must export what they manufacture/grow to the rest of the World for financial survival! America is the #1Destination for these exports.
America's retail consumer market is the worlds largest & richest!.
That's why almost every automobile maker has a USA subsidiary employing American workers!
There is no bigger market than America for Consumer retailing.
All of these nations need the American market for a customer!
In effect,they must support the American market to support themselves!
Sorry, many of those countries export to many other countries. China exports all over the world, as does India. This idea the whole world is begging to export everything to the US is a mirage. Go look at labels in your favorite store. Most are China and Vietnam with maybe Bangladesh or some other super-impoverished country. There are many, many countries you won't see. Okay, Brazil sends us a lot of orange juice as we don't have enough of our own. So if they don't use the dollar on everything, the tariff is 100%, so orange juice prices go through the roof. Who gets penalized? The American consumer. Congratulations, we really showed them!
Popeyes,TifFanys,are all foreign owned subsidiaries that operate legally as American Companies subsidiaries.As Europe continues to fade in it's financial war with the Brics,
Anticipate more European business to transfer financial resources out to USA/Canada & even Australia!
Ha ha. If US News and Newsweek are "left wing media", your bird's flying with two left wings. Every new president is greeted with predictions of a recession. It comes with the shift in personality. We don't have typical recessions any more. Official, ie. guvmint, numbers are "cooked". We live in an alternate reality.
Consider this, if a large number of government employees are laid off and simply become baristas at Starbucks, there will be more productive work done overall than when they are wasting time and taxpayer dollars in their current roles
Let me know when they stop wasting money sending billions to Ukraine/Israel. Never happen. Besides, let some conservative miss their SS check and then the wailing will start. We are sorry; we are understaffed and so your federal tax refund has been delayed another 6 months. See how that flies.
There was no particularly novel or deadly virus which caused a pandemic. It was a non specific test applied on mass scale and democide (fear, too much oxygen, denial of antibiotics, isolation, remdesivir, etc.) creating the illusion of a pandemic - theater. No dollar should have been spent on testing, masks, tracing, shutting the economy... I am sure the reason was to fire up the printing presses to bury some greatly problematic financial crisis.
Recessions usually happen when people realize (or are propagandized) that real inflation and real unemployment are worse than they had been lead to believe. You can bet that the news will soon be reporting that inflation is up (now that Trump is trashing Biden's economy) and unemployment is surging (for the same reason.) The stock market will probably crash, because the big investors are the only ones who believed the official reports anyway, and there haven't been any small investors since 2008.
People know what inflation is happening in what they buy, regardless of why some talking head says it is. People just know, especially at the grocery store where they buy many of the same products and know what it the price was before and now and/or the size shrank. I am not saying some of it gets by, but observant consumers know what's happening with inflation, regardless if the clowns claim it is transitory.
Interesting viewpoint - thanks. It's really hard to predict the economy - there are so many opposing forces. Many of the new proposed policies are, like you said, good in the long term, but not so good in the short term. For example, laying off thousands of federal employees would be great for the long term, but it would sure increase unemployment in the short term, which would be a force for recession. In fact, any decrease in spending and subsidies, although the right thing to do, will be recessionary in the short run. I might miss out on further stock gains, but at my age (83) I'd better stick with conservative, fairly priced companies that pay dividends, and try to play it safe.
Like taking medicine it won't be fun!
But t can be done!
Just getting rid of the toxins will improve the nation's health!
Excellent post , appreciate your work.
I found this guy in a clip in Dan Bongino’s podcast and decided to check him out. I’m in favor of anyone who truthfully talks about the economy and what Trump’s economic transformation of our government means for us. Like many people I don’t know much about finances and need someone to clarify it for me. Teaching economics and civics should be a prerequisite in our K thru 12 schools. When I was in high school so many years ago females were taught hone economics and males had shop. Nothing taught regarding finance or civics.
Peter. I read your article in ET in Bank Deregulation, very good stuff and agree. I have my own take on things, esp the insane stock market and fake “low” inflation. If either of us is half right, we are in big trouble. I'm a bit more gloomy and conspiratorial.
https://worldyturnings.com/2025/01/22/beginning-of-the-end/
Good point about making it $3 Tril in cuts rather than 2. I mean, if Musk fired 80% of X and is doing better, imagine firing at least 25% of current gov. 80% would be best! Let's go X style!
Also, persuade Americans to provide real service and goods to this country, not just lip service. It's funny how many podcasters just bs about doing this and that, but hardly any of them has provided a real good, product, service, etc., for the American economy. Hey guys, we get it, but America wasn't built on "Mr. Beast". For anyone interested in reading more cool stuff, you can check out https://livivan.medium.com/
Make it attractive to create a company in the USA. Remove incentives for illegal immigration. If someone commits a crime and is getting government support then reduce that support. We need people to be willing to work again and keep more of their wages.
Interesting how many of these companies USED to be American-owned. No more. The fact America only consumes and doesn't make much shows how far America has fallen. The middle class is shrinking as service jobs never pay like manufacturing jobs did.
The Chinese consumer is fast catching us; we don't see that as much because they consume a lot of products made in China.
Europe isn't having a war with the BRICS; Europe cut itself off from cheap Russian gas. Now they are paying much more for American gas and becoming uncompetitive in the process.
Apparently, Trump thinks he can threaten the BRICS+ countries into submission, but this will have the opposite effect. It just shows if you use the US Dollar, the US will threaten you, and in Russia's case, actually steal your assets. The US market isn't worth losing your sovereignty over; this is what brought BRICS+ about in the first place.
Lastly, the US consumer is severely ravaged by inflation; inflation is not going away as the US Government will continue to spend money they don't have and all fiat money eventually becomes worthless as politicians will always print.
I understand that our recent growth has been nothing more than debt money poured onto the economy which resulted in real inflation much higher than official numbers. Doesn’t it mean that in reality we’re already in a recession?
" . . .shrinking jobs for native born Americans. . ." Turns out Trump isn't that keen on hiring Americans having recently come swinging for H1-B Visas, which allow foreigners, mostly Indians, to come take high paying tech jobs rather than Americans. They claim there are not enough Americans, but the truth is, by having the Visa over the Indians, they get them to work 50-60 hours a week, which Americans won't do. Turns out Musk likes Indians taking American jobs too. Billionaires do not care a flip about Americans having jobs, just so they have cheap labor. The truth is out.
As for "Drill, Baby, Drill", no one is going to uncap wells already there until the price of oil makes it worthwhile. You can encourage all you want but until the price goes up and stays up, not much extra drilling and pumping is going to happen. This is Econ 101. Besides, Big Oil went to Congress and so now they can export crude oil (versus refined oil products previously) and so the American citizens won't see any cheaper prices at the pump. Of course, the GOP is all about Big Business, so this will never be reversed or even discussed.
Prof. ,
You might have an impersonator on here fyi
What I see no where is the fact that America is the greatest magnet for the worlds manufacturers & producers of Retail Consumers Products.
Most have limited numbers of domestic consumers & must export what they manufacture/grow to the rest of the World for financial survival! America is the #1Destination for these exports.
America's retail consumer market is the worlds largest & richest!.
That's why almost every automobile maker has a USA subsidiary employing American workers!
There is no bigger market than America for Consumer retailing.
All of these nations need the American market for a customer!
In effect,they must support the American market to support themselves!
Sorry, many of those countries export to many other countries. China exports all over the world, as does India. This idea the whole world is begging to export everything to the US is a mirage. Go look at labels in your favorite store. Most are China and Vietnam with maybe Bangladesh or some other super-impoverished country. There are many, many countries you won't see. Okay, Brazil sends us a lot of orange juice as we don't have enough of our own. So if they don't use the dollar on everything, the tariff is 100%, so orange juice prices go through the roof. Who gets penalized? The American consumer. Congratulations, we really showed them!
the usa has the worlds major retail consumer market for exporters,
i am talking about Retail Consumers,not bulk industrial trading.
All of the foreign Auto manufacturers who sell auto's in the USA have American Subsidiaries employing American Workers!
Trader Joes & Aldi's,Burger King,7-11.Lucky Strike,Chrysler,Ben & Jerry,IBM,Budweiser,
Popeyes,TifFanys,are all foreign owned subsidiaries that operate legally as American Companies subsidiaries.As Europe continues to fade in it's financial war with the Brics,
Anticipate more European business to transfer financial resources out to USA/Canada & even Australia!
Let's see if your logic works. will we see 128 jobs created for every bureaucratic pink slip?
Of course not. The CEO, though, will probably get more stock options.
It is amazing what errors a competitive free market will correct.
Ha ha. If US News and Newsweek are "left wing media", your bird's flying with two left wings. Every new president is greeted with predictions of a recession. It comes with the shift in personality. We don't have typical recessions any more. Official, ie. guvmint, numbers are "cooked". We live in an alternate reality.
Consider this, if a large number of government employees are laid off and simply become baristas at Starbucks, there will be more productive work done overall than when they are wasting time and taxpayer dollars in their current roles
Let me know when they stop wasting money sending billions to Ukraine/Israel. Never happen. Besides, let some conservative miss their SS check and then the wailing will start. We are sorry; we are understaffed and so your federal tax refund has been delayed another 6 months. See how that flies.
There was no particularly novel or deadly virus which caused a pandemic. It was a non specific test applied on mass scale and democide (fear, too much oxygen, denial of antibiotics, isolation, remdesivir, etc.) creating the illusion of a pandemic - theater. No dollar should have been spent on testing, masks, tracing, shutting the economy... I am sure the reason was to fire up the printing presses to bury some greatly problematic financial crisis.
Recessions usually happen when people realize (or are propagandized) that real inflation and real unemployment are worse than they had been lead to believe. You can bet that the news will soon be reporting that inflation is up (now that Trump is trashing Biden's economy) and unemployment is surging (for the same reason.) The stock market will probably crash, because the big investors are the only ones who believed the official reports anyway, and there haven't been any small investors since 2008.
People know what inflation is happening in what they buy, regardless of why some talking head says it is. People just know, especially at the grocery store where they buy many of the same products and know what it the price was before and now and/or the size shrank. I am not saying some of it gets by, but observant consumers know what's happening with inflation, regardless if the clowns claim it is transitory.