Monthly Investor Recap: January 2026
I’m starting a new monthly feature for 2026 focusing on investing, recapping where we are in the business cycle and how this impacts your investments.
Core Strategy
I used to teach an MBA course on investment analysis using Austrian Economic Theory to assess where we are in the business cycle, which is the single most important factor in how investments perform.
In short, if we’re in the boom part of the cycle you buy growth assets — right now AI stocks is peak growth asset.
And if we’re in a bust you either short the bubble if you’ve got balls of steel or — if you like sleeping at night — park it in gold and so-called “defensive” stocks like utilities or canned soup.
Macro Thesis as of January, 2026
My overall macro thesis for 2026 is we’ll get strong GDP growth driven by continued strong consumer spending and a tsunami of money pouring in from AI infrastructure, tariff re-shoring, ongoing federal deficits, and the Fed now turning solidly inflationary with ongoing rate cuts and QE.
All of these historically boost asset values — each is a mini “everything bubble.”
Because I think we’re still in the boom that gives me a bias towards growth — AI.
Having said, there are potential storm-clouds. Recession odds are hovering around 20%, and things could change fast if we see a collapse in investment and job growth or some external disaster.
You want some hedges like gold. And you also want a list of losers to reduce risk if you’re comfortable shorting stocks.
