I had seen the core GDP break down and the investment numbers. This could break very nicely. We will get the April inflation numbers in a week or so. Initial payroll reports on employment are just OK, we will see what the official reports look like pretty soon as well - figure the federal job cuts are going to start eating into the numbers at some point. But if it isn't terrible, with all the other good things beginning to bubble up - this economy could look golden as the year ends - meaning the democrat hopes for the midterms will go up in smoke. Still lots of time, but the trends look very positive.
You celebrate far too soon. You cannot know the long term impacts of Trump's tariffs because we don't even know how much the tariffs will be and upon whom they will be imposed yet.
This is no different from a Democrat shouting about how great Build Back Better was going to be. This is cheerleading.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I was skeptical about Biden and I'm just as skeptical about Trump. No scion of the ruling class is my ally.
I wouldn't get overly enthused about some of these investments until they actual come into fruition. There are some who think that SoftBank's Son wouldn't be able to come up with the money that Trump says he is pledging, and he has made much of his money by merging companies and taking profits in start ups, and not really creating jobs. https://www.voanews.com/a/trump-softbank-ceo-announce-100-billion-investment-in-us-/7903846.html
The Saudi's also are committing 1.5 trillion that I could see and not 2 trillion and again they are doing this over a 10 year period and are investing in existing energy companies.
Be careful of "facts." The "mass deportations" of all illegals here now will take 200+ years at the present rate. Not too big an impact on domestic jobs.
Trump has already stated in an interview he is only interested in deporting CRIMINAL illegals. He doesn't plan to bother the other illegals. So the illegals will work under the table and take jobs the lowest paid Americans should have. Nice job, New York Liberal Trump. What part of illegal do you not understand? I guess you need them to work in your businesses.
Besides you being a dumbass assuming you know something about me, trump changed his tune about all illegals because he talked any bullshit to get elected and still does. It's fools like you that believe anything he says and assume anyone that sees reality and sees through him is a democrat. Line up for your digital ID and stargate vaxxes or are you in denial that trump has that in the works?
Is it predatory or do they simply look out for their own country, while we don't?
China has invaded a lot less countries than we have and we have killed civilians by the millions over our occupations of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Serbia, and Libya. We leave the countries in chaos, poverty, and often anarchy.
We don't like China and Russia because they don't jump when we demand them to. The American Empire is crumbling and so, in desperation, we go out looking for bigger dragons to slay. Ever notice we are constantly at war with some group or country all the time?
No fan of Harris, but we are losing freedoms each and every Administration. Notice Trump isn't downsizing or eliminating the ATF, CIA, or NSA. He won't oppose the misnamed "Patriot Act". The NSA illegally sucks up all American electronic communications. The CIA is a rogue force without oversight and lies to Congress outright, and the ATF, at least the "F" part, is clearly unconstitutional.
Where is all this consumer spending? Fast food places, included vaunted Chipotle and Starbucks, are seeing declines in sales. I went into a popular local gun store yesterday and they were talking about no one buying. Even Walmart is saying the consumer is exhausted now. I am getting more and more emails from businesses I deal with and they are starting to cut prices to try to bring in business. I am not talking about specials, like Mother's Day, but just sending out 20% off or more. Clearly, things are not doing great when you are cutting prices by that much to try to drum up business.
As to all these factories, these look perfect for hiring some more H1-B visas. Both Trump and Musk are for bringing in foreigners to take American jobs. There are precious little manufacturing starting. What's going to happen when you want a drill, nuts, or bolts and you go to the hardware store and they don't have any because trade has stopped. No one is thinking about any of this, but shelves are going to be bare all over. If we think we are the winners when we make virtually nothing, someone isn't paying attention.
Maybe it's okay in the short-term, but America needs to forbid foreign actors from owning real estate or majority interests in companies within our borders.
If this is not done, strategic national assets will be owned by other nations, and that is not good for us.
We would not be the only nation to have these restrictions. It's common, and becoming more so.
So what you are saying is they can have all the dollars we give them, but they cannot buy anything with them. In other words, they can only buy Treasuries with their dollars. Don't be surprised if they buy gold from America with those dollars and we have inflation roaring back with a vengeance due to the millions of dollars coming home. A lot of people forget there are massive amounts of dollars around the world. Should be start to dump dollars, we would have hyperinflation here.
So it's all pointing to a gigantic economic boom...for the top 20%. And no inflation too boot! Is the FED finally going to go out of business with having nothing to do to save us? It would seem that the globalists crashing the economy will be put off for another 3 or 4 years.
"The Boom" means greater tax collections and that means no more deficits. Back up a bit on that lie. It means more government spending aka theft and grifting. They have already busted the defense budget where dollars go down the sink hole never to be seen again.
All the laid off government workers will be re-hired with back pay. Government will be growing again and life will be that much more grand...for the top 20%. The investment markets will be roaring and the top 20% will be in God's fat little pocket.
Who believes this no inflation nonsense? Remember, they cut food and energy out of the calculations and they have also changed the formularies from the late 1970s/early 80s. As always, the government massages numbers so they can steal from us and not give SS beneficiaries a fair inflation payout.
Why would you suggest that? That is nowhere in Trump's plan. Trump's plan will result in real wage gains for the lower wage workers, plus goodness for everyone else as well. That assumes it is successful of course.
Sure it is - but it is how GDP has been calculated forever. I think that is being re-assessed right now. At the very least I would change the calculation to create net govt spending, similar to trade. If you are borrowing more to spend, it is a negative amount. If the government is spending less than it receives in revenue it is positive. But I would prefer it was taken out all together.
The problem is that it’s a cost and not the actual value, no matter which way it is apportioned. There is “some” value to it but it’s nowhere near the cost associated.
Don’t get too ahead of your ski’s. Small businesses that don’t have the resources to build factories in the time needed to sustain their sales which were based on Chinese resourcing are going to get smacked. Listened to Chris Stigall this AM who had the CEO Shane Wilson who nailed the dilemma faced by relatively small specialized small businesses and how they are going to get creamed. Maybe a sniper rifle instead of a shotgun when applying tariffs. They can’t last forever without severely impacting the US.
Small businesses live off the investment of bigger firms. And smaller firms tend to be more locally sourced. The biggest thing for small business will be the regulation elimination which negatively impacts them more than the big guys.
Still opportunities for a rough road over the next through months. By no means are we out of danger. But the early reports are bit more encouraging than I expected. The outcome of all of these bilateral trade negotiations will be important.
If your company was still tied into China as the entire DC universe has been getting more and more hostile towards them - you just made a bad bet. China's positives as a US supply partner are disappearing. Adapt or die.
This mornings’ Chris Stigall Show interview with Shane Wilson demonstrates that it’s not going to be easy to undo in a year what took 30 years to get to this point. Especially for non-national security related industries. Is a model train company presenting a threat ? They have people employed in the US. What happens when they can’t justify a 145% increase in price? You have to listen to the interview. Otherwise I guess everyone can learn to code.
No it won't. But China is considered a strategic threat. It has been trending that way for years. Biden didn't remove the original Trump tariffs, and added restrictions on computer chips. I don't need to listen to it, you've described it rather well. I trust your description. This was coming, and everyone knew it was coming. We knew last summer Trump was going to win, and we knew, or had a pretty decent idea of what his plans for China were going to be.
I get it - a person has built a business based upon certain realities. But those realities have been under threat for quite some time. How the China thing ends, I can only guess. But that 145% tariff will probably be around 50-75% once it is all done unless Xi realizes the reality of his situation, and well, he is a dictator and he may not.
Personally, I don't think they are going to have to learn to code. Because all their competitors are dealing with the same issue. And some will work it out better than others. It's not easy, and I don't mean to imply that it is, if I did certainly did not mean to do so. But relying on China as the supplier they have always been is not smart, and hasn't been smart for quite some time now.
China is ONLY considered a threat because they don't consult with us and jump when we say jump. I would argue the US is a greater threat to world peace, running around the world starting wars and proxy wars. Look at the wreckage of countries we have caused: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Vietnam, and Ukraine. We have the blood of millions of civilians in those countries, not to mention all those with our sanctions, we are punishing even more civilians with no medicine, food, or much of anything. The American Empire is evil. China is on the rise and America has wasted trillions of dollars fighting wars across the globe instead of taking care of Americans. We will eventually become like the UK; a big has-been.
China has existed with a predatory economic model for pushing 30 years. The vaunted domestic economy everyone’s hoped for never quite happened. A police state, a part of them our previous administration looked to emulate ( and leftists worldwide still wish to embrace) they look to exterminate minorities in their midst, while they look to invade their neighbor.
We allowed them to hollow out our manufacturing base under the premise of lowering prices and democratizing the CCP, we wiped out small towns throughout middle America. And then we opened the border so China could send drugs to kill off those in despair.
I have no illusions about our own issues as a country, for we have them. Not uniquely of our former masters in DC of course. But we dodged a real authoritarian fascist govt had Harris been elected.
I’ll feel better when China decides to back off their global ambitions. Until they do, we must fight against that.
Trust me, and I didn't vote at all because I hate both lying parties, the GOP will spend like no tomorrow too. They are already talking about a $1 Trillion DoD budget for starters. So much for "savings". We know the federal government never saves anything.
No, it is just facts. When you deindustrialize over decades, those jobs are gone. Look at our workforce now. Many high school graduates cannot read/write at an eighth grade level and too many are happy not to work at all. In other words, the workforce of the 50s, 60s, and 70s is long gone. BTW, tariffs are only designed to protect current industries, not bring industries back. That is not what they are designed to do, ever. Saying they will do something else is illusory.
I am NOT filled with glee. You cannot tell the emotions of what someone writes. I am merely realistic. I wear no rose-colored glasses. Never underestimate the ability of politicians to screw things up.
You should add FDR to your list because prior to FDR, every American citizen could turn their dollars in and demand gold for them. FDR unconstitutionally, and unilaterally, declared it illegal for Americans to own gold. The dollar was stable when it was literally worth gold and could be redeemed at any time. It is now a fiat currency and as all fiat currencies eventually do, it will die. Politicians cannot restrain themselves from printing more money. Gold kept that from happening, back in the day. At this point, we are merely rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Actually, Bretton Woods required the Dollar to be as good as gold, but only countries (not individuals) could redeem dollars for gold. The problem came during the Nixon Administration when we were simultaneously spending massively on Johnson's Great Society and Vietnam at the same time. France called foul and believed we did not have gold for all the dollars out there. France was ready to send a warship over to send dollars and pick up gold. This is when Nixon closed the "gold window", meaning redemptions, thus destroying the Bretton Woods agreement. The PetroDollar was a response to the destruction of Bretton Woods and was an agreement with Saudi Arabia that if they would only take dollars for oil, we would ensure their Kingdom was protected. This ensured all those excess dollars still had a use for most countries. Of course, even that deal has been broken recently as Saudi Arabia has not renewed it after it expired after 50 years and has more recently taken Chinese yuan for oil payments.
Sadly, we cannot return to a gold-backed system. Why? What would we buy gold with, more debt? Plus, there are billions if not trillions of dollars out there floating around in the world. there are a couple of small countries who actually use the US dollar for their official currency. All these dollars would require backing too.
I am familiar with some of those states taking gold, but who would pay a state tax or debt with gold and how would they determine what it was worth, the spot price? Gold has value always and has been money for 5,000 years; the dollar continues to inflate (erode) away, ever more buying less and less.
I’m so thankful to have you as a voice of reason in the fear porn propaganda world in which we live.
I had seen the core GDP break down and the investment numbers. This could break very nicely. We will get the April inflation numbers in a week or so. Initial payroll reports on employment are just OK, we will see what the official reports look like pretty soon as well - figure the federal job cuts are going to start eating into the numbers at some point. But if it isn't terrible, with all the other good things beginning to bubble up - this economy could look golden as the year ends - meaning the democrat hopes for the midterms will go up in smoke. Still lots of time, but the trends look very positive.
You celebrate far too soon. You cannot know the long term impacts of Trump's tariffs because we don't even know how much the tariffs will be and upon whom they will be imposed yet.
This is no different from a Democrat shouting about how great Build Back Better was going to be. This is cheerleading.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I was skeptical about Biden and I'm just as skeptical about Trump. No scion of the ruling class is my ally.
I wouldn't get overly enthused about some of these investments until they actual come into fruition. There are some who think that SoftBank's Son wouldn't be able to come up with the money that Trump says he is pledging, and he has made much of his money by merging companies and taking profits in start ups, and not really creating jobs. https://www.voanews.com/a/trump-softbank-ceo-announce-100-billion-investment-in-us-/7903846.html
The Saudi's also are committing 1.5 trillion that I could see and not 2 trillion and again they are doing this over a 10 year period and are investing in existing energy companies.
Some of the companies—including the UAE investment fund ADQ—will also invest in U.S. assets like gas, chemicals and energy infrastructure, a White House official told Reuters. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2025/03/21/united-arab-emirates-pledges-14-trillion-us-investment-after-trump-meeting/
This doesn't necessarily mean they are creating jobs but could just be buying assets from someone else. Basically a transfer of wealth.
Also these are just pledges not necessarily guaranteed!
Apple does seem to be actually committed.
Some optimism doesn't hurt however.
Linking as usual @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Be careful of "facts." The "mass deportations" of all illegals here now will take 200+ years at the present rate. Not too big an impact on domestic jobs.
Trump has already stated in an interview he is only interested in deporting CRIMINAL illegals. He doesn't plan to bother the other illegals. So the illegals will work under the table and take jobs the lowest paid Americans should have. Nice job, New York Liberal Trump. What part of illegal do you not understand? I guess you need them to work in your businesses.
Besides you being a dumbass assuming you know something about me, trump changed his tune about all illegals because he talked any bullshit to get elected and still does. It's fools like you that believe anything he says and assume anyone that sees reality and sees through him is a democrat. Line up for your digital ID and stargate vaxxes or are you in denial that trump has that in the works?
I was speaking of Trump in those last sentences, not you.
I'm sorry - I misunderstood.
Is it predatory or do they simply look out for their own country, while we don't?
China has invaded a lot less countries than we have and we have killed civilians by the millions over our occupations of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Serbia, and Libya. We leave the countries in chaos, poverty, and often anarchy.
We don't like China and Russia because they don't jump when we demand them to. The American Empire is crumbling and so, in desperation, we go out looking for bigger dragons to slay. Ever notice we are constantly at war with some group or country all the time?
No fan of Harris, but we are losing freedoms each and every Administration. Notice Trump isn't downsizing or eliminating the ATF, CIA, or NSA. He won't oppose the misnamed "Patriot Act". The NSA illegally sucks up all American electronic communications. The CIA is a rogue force without oversight and lies to Congress outright, and the ATF, at least the "F" part, is clearly unconstitutional.
Where is all this consumer spending? Fast food places, included vaunted Chipotle and Starbucks, are seeing declines in sales. I went into a popular local gun store yesterday and they were talking about no one buying. Even Walmart is saying the consumer is exhausted now. I am getting more and more emails from businesses I deal with and they are starting to cut prices to try to bring in business. I am not talking about specials, like Mother's Day, but just sending out 20% off or more. Clearly, things are not doing great when you are cutting prices by that much to try to drum up business.
As to all these factories, these look perfect for hiring some more H1-B visas. Both Trump and Musk are for bringing in foreigners to take American jobs. There are precious little manufacturing starting. What's going to happen when you want a drill, nuts, or bolts and you go to the hardware store and they don't have any because trade has stopped. No one is thinking about any of this, but shelves are going to be bare all over. If we think we are the winners when we make virtually nothing, someone isn't paying attention.
I'm sorry, but your comment makes no sense to me at all.
Maybe it's okay in the short-term, but America needs to forbid foreign actors from owning real estate or majority interests in companies within our borders.
If this is not done, strategic national assets will be owned by other nations, and that is not good for us.
We would not be the only nation to have these restrictions. It's common, and becoming more so.
So what you are saying is they can have all the dollars we give them, but they cannot buy anything with them. In other words, they can only buy Treasuries with their dollars. Don't be surprised if they buy gold from America with those dollars and we have inflation roaring back with a vengeance due to the millions of dollars coming home. A lot of people forget there are massive amounts of dollars around the world. Should be start to dump dollars, we would have hyperinflation here.
I was taught that if we don't calculate exports net of imports we are double counting imports. Was I taught bad accounting? Please explain.
So it's all pointing to a gigantic economic boom...for the top 20%. And no inflation too boot! Is the FED finally going to go out of business with having nothing to do to save us? It would seem that the globalists crashing the economy will be put off for another 3 or 4 years.
"The Boom" means greater tax collections and that means no more deficits. Back up a bit on that lie. It means more government spending aka theft and grifting. They have already busted the defense budget where dollars go down the sink hole never to be seen again.
All the laid off government workers will be re-hired with back pay. Government will be growing again and life will be that much more grand...for the top 20%. The investment markets will be roaring and the top 20% will be in God's fat little pocket.
Who believes this no inflation nonsense? Remember, they cut food and energy out of the calculations and they have also changed the formularies from the late 1970s/early 80s. As always, the government massages numbers so they can steal from us and not give SS beneficiaries a fair inflation payout.
Why would you suggest that? That is nowhere in Trump's plan. Trump's plan will result in real wage gains for the lower wage workers, plus goodness for everyone else as well. That assumes it is successful of course.
Trump is NOT deporting non-criminal illegals, so THEY will compete with lower-wage American citizens. So much for caring about American citizens.
You mean it’s closer to being accurate for once. 😉
Including government spending in GDP is misleading at best.
Sure it is - but it is how GDP has been calculated forever. I think that is being re-assessed right now. At the very least I would change the calculation to create net govt spending, similar to trade. If you are borrowing more to spend, it is a negative amount. If the government is spending less than it receives in revenue it is positive. But I would prefer it was taken out all together.
The problem is that it’s a cost and not the actual value, no matter which way it is apportioned. There is “some” value to it but it’s nowhere near the cost associated.
I cannot disagree with you - so I would prefer just to eliminate it. But at least this way government spending would be highlighted as a negative.
Don’t get too ahead of your ski’s. Small businesses that don’t have the resources to build factories in the time needed to sustain their sales which were based on Chinese resourcing are going to get smacked. Listened to Chris Stigall this AM who had the CEO Shane Wilson who nailed the dilemma faced by relatively small specialized small businesses and how they are going to get creamed. Maybe a sniper rifle instead of a shotgun when applying tariffs. They can’t last forever without severely impacting the US.
Small businesses live off the investment of bigger firms. And smaller firms tend to be more locally sourced. The biggest thing for small business will be the regulation elimination which negatively impacts them more than the big guys.
Still opportunities for a rough road over the next through months. By no means are we out of danger. But the early reports are bit more encouraging than I expected. The outcome of all of these bilateral trade negotiations will be important.
If your company was still tied into China as the entire DC universe has been getting more and more hostile towards them - you just made a bad bet. China's positives as a US supply partner are disappearing. Adapt or die.
This mornings’ Chris Stigall Show interview with Shane Wilson demonstrates that it’s not going to be easy to undo in a year what took 30 years to get to this point. Especially for non-national security related industries. Is a model train company presenting a threat ? They have people employed in the US. What happens when they can’t justify a 145% increase in price? You have to listen to the interview. Otherwise I guess everyone can learn to code.
No it won't. But China is considered a strategic threat. It has been trending that way for years. Biden didn't remove the original Trump tariffs, and added restrictions on computer chips. I don't need to listen to it, you've described it rather well. I trust your description. This was coming, and everyone knew it was coming. We knew last summer Trump was going to win, and we knew, or had a pretty decent idea of what his plans for China were going to be.
I get it - a person has built a business based upon certain realities. But those realities have been under threat for quite some time. How the China thing ends, I can only guess. But that 145% tariff will probably be around 50-75% once it is all done unless Xi realizes the reality of his situation, and well, he is a dictator and he may not.
Personally, I don't think they are going to have to learn to code. Because all their competitors are dealing with the same issue. And some will work it out better than others. It's not easy, and I don't mean to imply that it is, if I did certainly did not mean to do so. But relying on China as the supplier they have always been is not smart, and hasn't been smart for quite some time now.
China is ONLY considered a threat because they don't consult with us and jump when we say jump. I would argue the US is a greater threat to world peace, running around the world starting wars and proxy wars. Look at the wreckage of countries we have caused: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Vietnam, and Ukraine. We have the blood of millions of civilians in those countries, not to mention all those with our sanctions, we are punishing even more civilians with no medicine, food, or much of anything. The American Empire is evil. China is on the rise and America has wasted trillions of dollars fighting wars across the globe instead of taking care of Americans. We will eventually become like the UK; a big has-been.
China has existed with a predatory economic model for pushing 30 years. The vaunted domestic economy everyone’s hoped for never quite happened. A police state, a part of them our previous administration looked to emulate ( and leftists worldwide still wish to embrace) they look to exterminate minorities in their midst, while they look to invade their neighbor.
We allowed them to hollow out our manufacturing base under the premise of lowering prices and democratizing the CCP, we wiped out small towns throughout middle America. And then we opened the border so China could send drugs to kill off those in despair.
I have no illusions about our own issues as a country, for we have them. Not uniquely of our former masters in DC of course. But we dodged a real authoritarian fascist govt had Harris been elected.
I’ll feel better when China decides to back off their global ambitions. Until they do, we must fight against that.
You are an idiot.
says the person that voted for Kamala and Joe...because they did such great things
So tell us...when you print $2 Trillion a year($6k a person) why is that a good thing?
Trust me, and I didn't vote at all because I hate both lying parties, the GOP will spend like no tomorrow too. They are already talking about a $1 Trillion DoD budget for starters. So much for "savings". We know the federal government never saves anything.
Calling people names went out in third-grade. Either make a good argument or bow out.
No, it is just facts. When you deindustrialize over decades, those jobs are gone. Look at our workforce now. Many high school graduates cannot read/write at an eighth grade level and too many are happy not to work at all. In other words, the workforce of the 50s, 60s, and 70s is long gone. BTW, tariffs are only designed to protect current industries, not bring industries back. That is not what they are designed to do, ever. Saying they will do something else is illusory.
I am NOT filled with glee. You cannot tell the emotions of what someone writes. I am merely realistic. I wear no rose-colored glasses. Never underestimate the ability of politicians to screw things up.
You should add FDR to your list because prior to FDR, every American citizen could turn their dollars in and demand gold for them. FDR unconstitutionally, and unilaterally, declared it illegal for Americans to own gold. The dollar was stable when it was literally worth gold and could be redeemed at any time. It is now a fiat currency and as all fiat currencies eventually do, it will die. Politicians cannot restrain themselves from printing more money. Gold kept that from happening, back in the day. At this point, we are merely rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Actually, Bretton Woods required the Dollar to be as good as gold, but only countries (not individuals) could redeem dollars for gold. The problem came during the Nixon Administration when we were simultaneously spending massively on Johnson's Great Society and Vietnam at the same time. France called foul and believed we did not have gold for all the dollars out there. France was ready to send a warship over to send dollars and pick up gold. This is when Nixon closed the "gold window", meaning redemptions, thus destroying the Bretton Woods agreement. The PetroDollar was a response to the destruction of Bretton Woods and was an agreement with Saudi Arabia that if they would only take dollars for oil, we would ensure their Kingdom was protected. This ensured all those excess dollars still had a use for most countries. Of course, even that deal has been broken recently as Saudi Arabia has not renewed it after it expired after 50 years and has more recently taken Chinese yuan for oil payments.
Sadly, we cannot return to a gold-backed system. Why? What would we buy gold with, more debt? Plus, there are billions if not trillions of dollars out there floating around in the world. there are a couple of small countries who actually use the US dollar for their official currency. All these dollars would require backing too.
I am familiar with some of those states taking gold, but who would pay a state tax or debt with gold and how would they determine what it was worth, the spot price? Gold has value always and has been money for 5,000 years; the dollar continues to inflate (erode) away, ever more buying less and less.