Like always it’s a temporary dip, ref what took place in the mid 1970s to mid 1980s. Inflation does not go away just like that, and Trumps policies, tariffs among other things, will make inflation rise. Key word is interest bearing debt, and with money printing out of control it will get worse. We are heading for a Weimar moment, it just ebbs and flows before hyperinflation sets in. Besides, we are lied to to as real inflation is much higher, somewhere north of 8%, see chart:
100% Agree Just look at all the homelessness, we do NOT need more money printing, we do not need loose monetary policy, we need some deflation, we need to remove money from the system, we have too much money chasing too few goods.
This is not good news if the FED starts lowering rates and starts inflation even higher than it has been. home prices are still sky high, if they lower rates they will go even higher.
Why is it that NO ONE questions if inflation REALLY fell that much? If this were the Biden Administration, they would be accused of cooking the books. But now, nary a word of doubt. Never mind the numbers are ALWAYS cooked because they leave out food and energy, things EVERYONE uses all the time. We also know the inflation formula is not the same one used in the late 1970s/early 1980s. This is because government loves to pretend inflation is lower than it is. It also allows them to steal from anyone getting a check from the government because they will STEAL from those via REAL inflation.
If Trump wants to get widespread support for his tariffs, he should announce that all funds go towards reducing the debt. You will find that people think it’s easier to buy domestic and that it’s only right that the snobs who buy imported goods will pay for getting the debt paid off.
Wonderful. Trump has likely caused a recession so you can buy cheap eggs. It will be really great for all your readers to not have jobs. Those eggs better get really cheap!
Wonderful. Trump has likely caused a recession so you can buy cheap eggs. It will be really great for all your readers to not have jobs. Those eggs better get really cheap!
I have just read a newsletter from Epoch Times with a 180 degree difference headline from this substack article. Consumer confidence dropped massively in February -worst in 3 years; "long-run inflation expectations" are the worst in 32 years. After the nightmare economy of the last 4 years, I was a bit surprised to catch these headlines. Granted, they are reporting on consumer feelings rather than Professor St Onge's facts - I was still surprised. Recently, I had read an Epoch Times newsletter article about RFK Jr as HHS Secretary and the measles outbreak and was massively dismayed that they reported no differently from legacy media. It was actually shocking to me. They didn't go to primary sources for answers, they didn't investigate what was going on in Texas, didn't find a different viewpoint even. And at the end of their article, they credited AP for providing the information. My point is, if I didn't have substack and X, with excellent insights from experts such as yourself, I'd be up a creek. Thank you.
I am not of the opinion that politicians per se have much affect on inflation. There is no way to measure it except to lump everyone together and that is nothing but nonsense.
How I view inflation: Despite whatever numbers they throw out, inflation is different for every consumer. There is no one-size-fits-all-number. To say that yearly inflation was 4% and is now 2% (or whatever the numbers may be) is ludicrous and completely misleading. Not that government would ever hoodwink us or throw us a dummy tack (as they do in sailing races).
Using the start of the year as a baseline, inflation may still be 2%. Depending on my consumption, my inflation might be 5 or 6%. Or it could be -3%. For example, I could make consumption choices that offer me less cost verses what I normally buy or consume.
Or, if my total consumption in 2024 was $30,000 and in 2025 it is only $28,000, inflation didn't affect me much even if prices increased and maybe I didn't quite get the same bang for the buck as the year before. I still spent less and maybe passed on a few things that I didn't really need.
You also have to consider how they calculate inflation and this method has changed over the decades. I believe they changed the calculation in the late 1990's so that they wouldn't have to pay so much in Social Security raises.
I read somewhere that since 2000 SS raises are now behind inflation by over 30%. For me and my wife, that's about a $1,000 raise every month that some grifter in USAID is likely spending. Then again, maybe instead of medicare being $185/month, it should be $350. Who knows?
It's all relative. For 2025 thus far, my biggest cost which is rent is now 11% higher than last year. Car insurance (two vehicles, full coverage) is flat verses last year. Food is still higher and eggs are not the only food where prices are still escalating. I like to buy meats at the local market instead of the chain stores. That is more expensive. We don't drive much so gas prices don't matter and my monthly energy bill averages about $45 for electric, no gas (all electric) and no bill for water since it comes from a community well. I have very few medical bills but my wife has them coming in almost every month.
Measuring inflation for anyone should start the day they get their first regular paycheck and become a regular consumer. For me that is probably April 1968. So 2-3% inflation in 2025 may seem low but over 57 years it really adds up.
If they want to tell me inflation went down (as in deflation) than all the increases over the last 57 years would have to be erased. Saying that inflation is down only means that it is not rising as fast as in some previous period, but it is still rising. Over time, it destroys wealth for the little guy.
You said, “Interestingly, new car prices fell while used rose. Interesting because tariffs were supposed to increase new car prices. While deportations should be lowering used cars -- lots of extra cars for sale.”
You seemed to suggest that this is not a good sign. I think it is a great sign. People are being more careful with getting into deeper debt. They fear more inflation and are reluctant to get a new car because of it. Fiscal sanity? They are unsure what the results of tariffs are going to be on everything, and most likely took a wait and see approach to buying a new car, to buy a used car instead. Interest rates are also high and putting a hex on purchasing new cars.
Peter, I am currently calling "end of cycle," which is typically a recession for 6-18 months. Am I off base? I pushed late cycle in March 2024, so please be critical of my thoughts, your input would be valuable to me. Jeff Page in lovely Houston Texas
"Americans have suffered under crippling inflation, and the Federal Reserve is to blame," said Rep. Massie. "During COVID, the Federal Reserve created trillions of dollars out of thin air and loaned it to the Treasury Department to enable unprecedented deficit spending. By monetizing the debt, the Federal Reserve devalued the dollar and enabled free money policies that caused high inflation.”
"Monetizing debt is a closely coordinated effort between the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Congress, Big Banks, and Wall Street," Rep. Massie continued. "Through this process, retirees see their savings evaporate due to the actions of a central bank pursuing inflationary policies that benefit the wealthy and connected. If we really want to reduce inflation, the most effective policy is to end the Federal Reserve."
“The Federal Reserve has not only failed to achieve its mandate, it has become an economic manipulator, directly contributing to the financial instability many Americans face today,” said Sen. Lee. “We need to protect our economic future, end the monetization of federal debt that fuels unchecked federal spending, and put American money on solid ground. We need to End the Fed.”
"Monetary policy is not a scintillating topic. It is easy to get bored after hearing talk of bonds, interest rates, and quantitative easing. However, this is exactly what makes the Fed so dangerous. Boredom washes away scrutiny, creating a population that is unaware and uninterested, allowing our institutions to worsen the problems of the status quo.
There is no simple solution to making people interested in the Federal Reserve, let alone tearing down and replacing the unequal foundation of our macroeconomy. But the one thing we need to agree on is that this system is flawed and needs a massive overhaul."
For sure. Since CPI doesn't include food and energy prices and their "basket of goods" is a poor indication of inflation. The ONLY meaningful discussion on inflation MUST include the inflating of the money supply. If we can't bring that to a manageable number, we're all screwed.
Like always it’s a temporary dip, ref what took place in the mid 1970s to mid 1980s. Inflation does not go away just like that, and Trumps policies, tariffs among other things, will make inflation rise. Key word is interest bearing debt, and with money printing out of control it will get worse. We are heading for a Weimar moment, it just ebbs and flows before hyperinflation sets in. Besides, we are lied to to as real inflation is much higher, somewhere north of 8%, see chart:
https://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/alt-cpi-home2.gif?hl=ad&t=
100% Agree Just look at all the homelessness, we do NOT need more money printing, we do not need loose monetary policy, we need some deflation, we need to remove money from the system, we have too much money chasing too few goods.
It's nice to get good news.
This is not good news if the FED starts lowering rates and starts inflation even higher than it has been. home prices are still sky high, if they lower rates they will go even higher.
What assets does the Fed have under its 6T$?
Treasuries, MBSs, bank debt
WOW! Pretending to be Peter? What an ass hat!
You can't even spell Substack
Why is it that NO ONE questions if inflation REALLY fell that much? If this were the Biden Administration, they would be accused of cooking the books. But now, nary a word of doubt. Never mind the numbers are ALWAYS cooked because they leave out food and energy, things EVERYONE uses all the time. We also know the inflation formula is not the same one used in the late 1970s/early 1980s. This is because government loves to pretend inflation is lower than it is. It also allows them to steal from anyone getting a check from the government because they will STEAL from those via REAL inflation.
If Trump wants to get widespread support for his tariffs, he should announce that all funds go towards reducing the debt. You will find that people think it’s easier to buy domestic and that it’s only right that the snobs who buy imported goods will pay for getting the debt paid off.
"It's patriotic to pay higher prices" isn't going to go down as well as you think.
Wonderful. Trump has likely caused a recession so you can buy cheap eggs. It will be really great for all your readers to not have jobs. Those eggs better get really cheap!
Wonderful. Trump has likely caused a recession so you can buy cheap eggs. It will be really great for all your readers to not have jobs. Those eggs better get really cheap!
I have just read a newsletter from Epoch Times with a 180 degree difference headline from this substack article. Consumer confidence dropped massively in February -worst in 3 years; "long-run inflation expectations" are the worst in 32 years. After the nightmare economy of the last 4 years, I was a bit surprised to catch these headlines. Granted, they are reporting on consumer feelings rather than Professor St Onge's facts - I was still surprised. Recently, I had read an Epoch Times newsletter article about RFK Jr as HHS Secretary and the measles outbreak and was massively dismayed that they reported no differently from legacy media. It was actually shocking to me. They didn't go to primary sources for answers, they didn't investigate what was going on in Texas, didn't find a different viewpoint even. And at the end of their article, they credited AP for providing the information. My point is, if I didn't have substack and X, with excellent insights from experts such as yourself, I'd be up a creek. Thank you.
I am not of the opinion that politicians per se have much affect on inflation. There is no way to measure it except to lump everyone together and that is nothing but nonsense.
How I view inflation: Despite whatever numbers they throw out, inflation is different for every consumer. There is no one-size-fits-all-number. To say that yearly inflation was 4% and is now 2% (or whatever the numbers may be) is ludicrous and completely misleading. Not that government would ever hoodwink us or throw us a dummy tack (as they do in sailing races).
Using the start of the year as a baseline, inflation may still be 2%. Depending on my consumption, my inflation might be 5 or 6%. Or it could be -3%. For example, I could make consumption choices that offer me less cost verses what I normally buy or consume.
Or, if my total consumption in 2024 was $30,000 and in 2025 it is only $28,000, inflation didn't affect me much even if prices increased and maybe I didn't quite get the same bang for the buck as the year before. I still spent less and maybe passed on a few things that I didn't really need.
You also have to consider how they calculate inflation and this method has changed over the decades. I believe they changed the calculation in the late 1990's so that they wouldn't have to pay so much in Social Security raises.
I read somewhere that since 2000 SS raises are now behind inflation by over 30%. For me and my wife, that's about a $1,000 raise every month that some grifter in USAID is likely spending. Then again, maybe instead of medicare being $185/month, it should be $350. Who knows?
It's all relative. For 2025 thus far, my biggest cost which is rent is now 11% higher than last year. Car insurance (two vehicles, full coverage) is flat verses last year. Food is still higher and eggs are not the only food where prices are still escalating. I like to buy meats at the local market instead of the chain stores. That is more expensive. We don't drive much so gas prices don't matter and my monthly energy bill averages about $45 for electric, no gas (all electric) and no bill for water since it comes from a community well. I have very few medical bills but my wife has them coming in almost every month.
Measuring inflation for anyone should start the day they get their first regular paycheck and become a regular consumer. For me that is probably April 1968. So 2-3% inflation in 2025 may seem low but over 57 years it really adds up.
If they want to tell me inflation went down (as in deflation) than all the increases over the last 57 years would have to be erased. Saying that inflation is down only means that it is not rising as fast as in some previous period, but it is still rising. Over time, it destroys wealth for the little guy.
Just my thoughts and thanks for the article.
You said, “Interestingly, new car prices fell while used rose. Interesting because tariffs were supposed to increase new car prices. While deportations should be lowering used cars -- lots of extra cars for sale.”
You seemed to suggest that this is not a good sign. I think it is a great sign. People are being more careful with getting into deeper debt. They fear more inflation and are reluctant to get a new car because of it. Fiscal sanity? They are unsure what the results of tariffs are going to be on everything, and most likely took a wait and see approach to buying a new car, to buy a used car instead. Interest rates are also high and putting a hex on purchasing new cars.
Peter, I am currently calling "end of cycle," which is typically a recession for 6-18 months. Am I off base? I pushed late cycle in March 2024, so please be critical of my thoughts, your input would be valuable to me. Jeff Page in lovely Houston Texas
Was that your auto-pilot reply?
"Americans have suffered under crippling inflation, and the Federal Reserve is to blame," said Rep. Massie. "During COVID, the Federal Reserve created trillions of dollars out of thin air and loaned it to the Treasury Department to enable unprecedented deficit spending. By monetizing the debt, the Federal Reserve devalued the dollar and enabled free money policies that caused high inflation.”
"Monetizing debt is a closely coordinated effort between the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Congress, Big Banks, and Wall Street," Rep. Massie continued. "Through this process, retirees see their savings evaporate due to the actions of a central bank pursuing inflationary policies that benefit the wealthy and connected. If we really want to reduce inflation, the most effective policy is to end the Federal Reserve."
“The Federal Reserve has not only failed to achieve its mandate, it has become an economic manipulator, directly contributing to the financial instability many Americans face today,” said Sen. Lee. “We need to protect our economic future, end the monetization of federal debt that fuels unchecked federal spending, and put American money on solid ground. We need to End the Fed.”
"Monetary policy is not a scintillating topic. It is easy to get bored after hearing talk of bonds, interest rates, and quantitative easing. However, this is exactly what makes the Fed so dangerous. Boredom washes away scrutiny, creating a population that is unaware and uninterested, allowing our institutions to worsen the problems of the status quo.
There is no simple solution to making people interested in the Federal Reserve, let alone tearing down and replacing the unequal foundation of our macroeconomy. But the one thing we need to agree on is that this system is flawed and needs a massive overhaul."
For sure. Since CPI doesn't include food and energy prices and their "basket of goods" is a poor indication of inflation. The ONLY meaningful discussion on inflation MUST include the inflating of the money supply. If we can't bring that to a manageable number, we're all screwed.