We are hitting the wall. Don't think this is limited to just Japan, they are the BIGGEST external Holder of US debt! they unload it...the FED has to ADD to the $7 TRILLION OF DEBT they already have along with the $37 Trillion at the Treasury($130,000 A PERSON). We have come to the END of what is good for Goldman Sachs is good for the world(Tucker's interview of Luke Gromen explores the end of that age, like the end of what was good for GM was good for the USA).
It is TIME TO FORCE wall street(global financial markets)...to ACTUALLY invest(not moving your Intellectual property to Ireland to GAME taxes? or hold financial instruments for a pico second), and DRAMATICALLY SHRINK its useless overpaid employment. Today we have money spinning, the richest man in NJ...is a hedgefund trader who uses math and physics to front run the markets and hold stocks and bonds for a pico-second...IT SERVES ZERO purpose, beyond his enrichment! I don't believe pumping and dumping is any good with its claim that "efficient" markets, help society! Ny area of NJ every other guy I meet is a financial adviser with laughable little knowledge beyond buy Amazon, Apple, Google, etc because GOVERNMENT will PRINT money and RESCUE Wall STreet like 1987, 2000, 2008, etc.
I call for a 4% TAX on all the GROSS of wall street trades(Stocks, bonds, etc even better global financial markets) or moving money offshore. WE NEED investment to GROW actual USEFUL businesses...not idiots on wall street NOT CREATING useful business, beyond building 3rd,4th houses. Travel outside money centers, tech centers and power centers...or their vacation areas....you see unpainted houses and Appalachian like POVERTY with Few stores, no restaurants, meth addled young, no hope, etc!
You do realize the short-term trader is not getting any capital gains tax advantage? He is paying his current tax rate on his profits. This is not the problem with the markets. Everyone is not doing this. Those who do, eventually catch the market going the wrong way and get slammed. There is no free lunch. When markets go sideways, traders like that get in trouble quick.
The problem with poverty and meth addled young is a moral problem and can never be solved by Wall Street. Part of the problem is the failure of public education, pushing students through the system regardless of if they meet the requirements or not. In the process, they destroyed the value of a high school diploma in the process. Those in Appalachia have always been poor and 100 years from now, they will still be poor. Appalachia is not the rest of America. The problem is no one saves but has to buy the latest gadget, whether or not they need it or can afford it. Live in a trailer, but have 300+ TV channels. Priorities, priorities.
You seem to think everyone who invests in stocks is rich with your 4% tax. There are a lot of 401Ks invested in the stock market and well as small investors. You cannot make someone invest in what YOU want them to invest in or invest where YOU want them to. You don't want freedom to buy what stock, bond, or other investment one wants should be that person's decision. You either want to tell them what to invest in or tax them to death.
You do as you please and everyone else does as they please in buying and selling securities. Those who trade for small amounts all the time are likely to get caught, not to mention they get to pay the taxman royally with no capital gains tax advantage. It doesn't bother me what others do in terms of buying and selling.
Japan got to the point where over 50% of its Government debt was held by BOJ because nobody other than BOJ wanted it at essentially 0% interest. The Yen carry trade then compounded the problem.
After the Japan bubble collapsed (when the Emperor's enclave in central Tokyo was valued at more than the entire State of California (And as SNL jokingly declared The Rockefeller Center in NYC as "A subsidiary of the Mitsubishi Corporation"), instead of taking the hit and allowing the pain to pass then recover, the Japanese Government decided to pursue it's reckless policy of zero interest rates forever without addressing the fundamental problems with a Japanese economy that had lost its competitiveness for a number of reasons.
It seems to me that the US is essentially pursuing the same track because these days nobody can bear any pain. Actually that is less true in Asia than in the West. So one has to wonder why Governments are incapable of solving problems through taking tough measures to clear problems and move on. If that is because they simply want to get re-elected then one has to question the viability of the Western "democratic" structures and systems which are leading us all towards totalitarianism.
It is rather simple. Politicians never want to deal with hard issues and voters will never make them. There isn't really a two-party system; there's a Uniparty. Spend, spend, and spend some more and let's have a few wars in between is their motto.
Check out my comment on UK toxic LDI- both the private and public sector DB pension funds built their investment/pension products on the basis of an unrealistic assumption of prevailing high ROIs. Remember the era of supernormal profits?
I can't think of a single country in the OECD which isn't royally screwed- although Profstonge might be able to point to a couple of exceptions.
I would also highly advise getting a quote on a medical wraparound policy. Even premium private medical plans rely upon healthy returns on the investment side, which really haven't been much better than the hedge funds for a number of years. So it's worth covering what your existing coverage won't cover, if you can afford it.
I don't think it will be a good decade for anywhere!
Singapore is the one possible exception. Don't let their debt-to-GDP ratio fool you. They've built up a huge reserve and asset portfolio. I think it's likely to be the destination of choice for talent as other countries struggle under their mounting debt and population collapse issues they are facing.
Zero net debt and reserves of 200-300% of GDP provide a buffer against aging-related costs, unlike Japan’s debt burden or China’s implicit liabilities.
Their only real structural problem is energy costs, which looks to me to be a head-on crash waiting to happen given they are second globally for data centre construction.
The smart money would be looking at energy companies supplying Singapore.
..."As for America, we’re a decade behind Japan on debt."...and closing very fast. Trump's big ugly bill is going to provide even more impetus. The clown show called government has no clue as they only know to keep doing the same things over and over.
You didn't mention it, but the Bank of Japan also bought stocks or ETFs as well, so they were propping up that market too, literally. Why would anyone buy stocks when the means to determine a fair price has been removed by the central bank?
Hey Peter, I was watching a really interesting economics talk on China the other day. The speaker showed that as a result of tariffs during Trump 1.0, the CCP told their finance industry to stop backing real estate and instead invest in the industrial sector.
Some of the data on the new BYD Qin is incredible. 10 months salary for a BYD employee to buy it. 2,300km range for a hybrid (65 litre capacity). 94% of the energy derived from the fuel.
I don't think most Western leaders have the slightest clue what is happening- only Trump with his hawk-like focus on how the real economy, and internal competition, works. Most know nothing about energy.
I had to hunt fairly hard for this source. It details the UK toxic LDI exposure which deepened the crisis over fiscal policy. I guess Google doesn't like anybody but insiders getting spooked over deeply concerning financial trends. I've seen similar periods where they hide info on the UK mortgage repo market- a clear indicator not to buy real estate.
In many ways some of the indicators for European and U.S. banks were even more concerning at the time, partly due to fractional reserve lending ratios. The Europeans are in a far worse position, but DB pensions and legacy pensions remain a very real concern. The conspiracy minded might imagine that governments might have been engaging in deliberate policies to stimulate returns on buying up government debt- a surefire way of bailing out the big banks without requiring a corporate bailout. And it's also worth noting that periods of high inflation inflate returns on corporate investments for pension funds, although because of the need to subtract the underlying rate of inflation, these are purely paper profits- ideal for financial firms looking to meet pension obligations. Of course, I'm just spitballing here, pure speculation...
I'm not sure what the technical term is but there is a definite tendency on the part of financial markets to ASS.U.ME that prevailing market conditions will continue for the foreseeable future.
Cool! Thanks for that, buddy! I didn't know how many biases there were, until I noticed just how biased people were...
Anchor bias is probably the most dangerous, because it prevents governments and institutions from updating their software when new information becomes available.
Most are still running on a couple of really bad Netflix documentaries on cows, for ways to screw up agriculture.
We are hitting the wall. Don't think this is limited to just Japan, they are the BIGGEST external Holder of US debt! they unload it...the FED has to ADD to the $7 TRILLION OF DEBT they already have along with the $37 Trillion at the Treasury($130,000 A PERSON). We have come to the END of what is good for Goldman Sachs is good for the world(Tucker's interview of Luke Gromen explores the end of that age, like the end of what was good for GM was good for the USA).
It is TIME TO FORCE wall street(global financial markets)...to ACTUALLY invest(not moving your Intellectual property to Ireland to GAME taxes? or hold financial instruments for a pico second), and DRAMATICALLY SHRINK its useless overpaid employment. Today we have money spinning, the richest man in NJ...is a hedgefund trader who uses math and physics to front run the markets and hold stocks and bonds for a pico-second...IT SERVES ZERO purpose, beyond his enrichment! I don't believe pumping and dumping is any good with its claim that "efficient" markets, help society! Ny area of NJ every other guy I meet is a financial adviser with laughable little knowledge beyond buy Amazon, Apple, Google, etc because GOVERNMENT will PRINT money and RESCUE Wall STreet like 1987, 2000, 2008, etc.
I call for a 4% TAX on all the GROSS of wall street trades(Stocks, bonds, etc even better global financial markets) or moving money offshore. WE NEED investment to GROW actual USEFUL businesses...not idiots on wall street NOT CREATING useful business, beyond building 3rd,4th houses. Travel outside money centers, tech centers and power centers...or their vacation areas....you see unpainted houses and Appalachian like POVERTY with Few stores, no restaurants, meth addled young, no hope, etc!
You do realize the short-term trader is not getting any capital gains tax advantage? He is paying his current tax rate on his profits. This is not the problem with the markets. Everyone is not doing this. Those who do, eventually catch the market going the wrong way and get slammed. There is no free lunch. When markets go sideways, traders like that get in trouble quick.
The problem with poverty and meth addled young is a moral problem and can never be solved by Wall Street. Part of the problem is the failure of public education, pushing students through the system regardless of if they meet the requirements or not. In the process, they destroyed the value of a high school diploma in the process. Those in Appalachia have always been poor and 100 years from now, they will still be poor. Appalachia is not the rest of America. The problem is no one saves but has to buy the latest gadget, whether or not they need it or can afford it. Live in a trailer, but have 300+ TV channels. Priorities, priorities.
You seem to think everyone who invests in stocks is rich with your 4% tax. There are a lot of 401Ks invested in the stock market and well as small investors. You cannot make someone invest in what YOU want them to invest in or invest where YOU want them to. You don't want freedom to buy what stock, bond, or other investment one wants should be that person's decision. You either want to tell them what to invest in or tax them to death.
Stop trading and start investing in America.
You do as you please and everyone else does as they please in buying and selling securities. Those who trade for small amounts all the time are likely to get caught, not to mention they get to pay the taxman royally with no capital gains tax advantage. It doesn't bother me what others do in terms of buying and selling.
Japan got to the point where over 50% of its Government debt was held by BOJ because nobody other than BOJ wanted it at essentially 0% interest. The Yen carry trade then compounded the problem.
After the Japan bubble collapsed (when the Emperor's enclave in central Tokyo was valued at more than the entire State of California (And as SNL jokingly declared The Rockefeller Center in NYC as "A subsidiary of the Mitsubishi Corporation"), instead of taking the hit and allowing the pain to pass then recover, the Japanese Government decided to pursue it's reckless policy of zero interest rates forever without addressing the fundamental problems with a Japanese economy that had lost its competitiveness for a number of reasons.
It seems to me that the US is essentially pursuing the same track because these days nobody can bear any pain. Actually that is less true in Asia than in the West. So one has to wonder why Governments are incapable of solving problems through taking tough measures to clear problems and move on. If that is because they simply want to get re-elected then one has to question the viability of the Western "democratic" structures and systems which are leading us all towards totalitarianism.
It is rather simple. Politicians never want to deal with hard issues and voters will never make them. There isn't really a two-party system; there's a Uniparty. Spend, spend, and spend some more and let's have a few wars in between is their motto.
Check out my comment on UK toxic LDI- both the private and public sector DB pension funds built their investment/pension products on the basis of an unrealistic assumption of prevailing high ROIs. Remember the era of supernormal profits?
I can't think of a single country in the OECD which isn't royally screwed- although Profstonge might be able to point to a couple of exceptions.
I would also highly advise getting a quote on a medical wraparound policy. Even premium private medical plans rely upon healthy returns on the investment side, which really haven't been much better than the hedge funds for a number of years. So it's worth covering what your existing coverage won't cover, if you can afford it.
Don't think it will be a decade for the U.S. Just saying! Linking today as usual @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
I don't think it will be a good decade for anywhere!
Singapore is the one possible exception. Don't let their debt-to-GDP ratio fool you. They've built up a huge reserve and asset portfolio. I think it's likely to be the destination of choice for talent as other countries struggle under their mounting debt and population collapse issues they are facing.
Zero net debt and reserves of 200-300% of GDP provide a buffer against aging-related costs, unlike Japan’s debt burden or China’s implicit liabilities.
Their only real structural problem is energy costs, which looks to me to be a head-on crash waiting to happen given they are second globally for data centre construction.
The smart money would be looking at energy companies supplying Singapore.
We aren’t far behind .
..."As for America, we’re a decade behind Japan on debt."...and closing very fast. Trump's big ugly bill is going to provide even more impetus. The clown show called government has no clue as they only know to keep doing the same things over and over.
Last I checked on Bloomberg, US CDS and Greece CDS were on top of one another. Fun stuff.
You didn't mention it, but the Bank of Japan also bought stocks or ETFs as well, so they were propping up that market too, literally. Why would anyone buy stocks when the means to determine a fair price has been removed by the central bank?
Hey Peter, I was watching a really interesting economics talk on China the other day. The speaker showed that as a result of tariffs during Trump 1.0, the CCP told their finance industry to stop backing real estate and instead invest in the industrial sector.
Some of the data on the new BYD Qin is incredible. 10 months salary for a BYD employee to buy it. 2,300km range for a hybrid (65 litre capacity). 94% of the energy derived from the fuel.
I don't think most Western leaders have the slightest clue what is happening- only Trump with his hawk-like focus on how the real economy, and internal competition, works. Most know nothing about energy.
I had to hunt fairly hard for this source. It details the UK toxic LDI exposure which deepened the crisis over fiscal policy. I guess Google doesn't like anybody but insiders getting spooked over deeply concerning financial trends. I've seen similar periods where they hide info on the UK mortgage repo market- a clear indicator not to buy real estate.
In many ways some of the indicators for European and U.S. banks were even more concerning at the time, partly due to fractional reserve lending ratios. The Europeans are in a far worse position, but DB pensions and legacy pensions remain a very real concern. The conspiracy minded might imagine that governments might have been engaging in deliberate policies to stimulate returns on buying up government debt- a surefire way of bailing out the big banks without requiring a corporate bailout. And it's also worth noting that periods of high inflation inflate returns on corporate investments for pension funds, although because of the need to subtract the underlying rate of inflation, these are purely paper profits- ideal for financial firms looking to meet pension obligations. Of course, I'm just spitballing here, pure speculation...
I'm not sure what the technical term is but there is a definite tendency on the part of financial markets to ASS.U.ME that prevailing market conditions will continue for the foreseeable future.
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2024/07/26/what-caused-the-ldi-crisis/
Recency bias is the word you’re looking for.
Cool! Thanks for that, buddy! I didn't know how many biases there were, until I noticed just how biased people were...
Anchor bias is probably the most dangerous, because it prevents governments and institutions from updating their software when new information becomes available.
Most are still running on a couple of really bad Netflix documentaries on cows, for ways to screw up agriculture.
Great post, Sir