"Last Chance" to Grow out of the $37 Trillion Debt
America faces a “last chance” to grow out of our debt before we plunge into European-style stagnation.
So says Trump’s pick for Treasury, Scott Bessent. Who, Senate willing, will be replacing Janet Yellen.
Bessent's not wrong, with the national debt set to hit $37 trillion in the next couple months — almost a third above the World War 2 record. And debt service now hitting $1.4 trillion.
Meaning nearly one in three dollars the federal government collects goes straight out the back door to Wall Street and China to service old debt.
Growth is Key to Trumponomics
Growth has been a central promise of Trumponomics, the key elements being lower taxes and regulations, more energy-friendly and manufacturing-friendly policies, low inflation and — with the Department of Government Efficiency — lower federal spending.
If these can achieve, say, 3% growth and DOGE can at least balance the budget, then the debt starts to proper melt away.
To see why, it's not the amount of debt that matters, it's the size of the debt relative to the economy. The debt to GDP ratio.
For example, one trillion in debt isn't a big deal if you're America, but it's crippling if you're a tiny country like Iceland with a population of 400,000.
So if we simply hold the $36 trillion debt in place and grow the economy 3%, we’ve effectively paid off 3% of the debt -- $1.1 trillion.
The debt got smaller relative to the economy.
Do that for a decade or two and we're out of the woods.
The 1990’s Deficit Miracle
Now, the last time we managed high growth and zero deficits was the late 1990's.
The reason was Bill Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich couldn't agree on much but cutting spending.
Back then, they turned a deficit of one-sixth of tax revenue into a surplus of one-sixth of tax revenue. In today’s terms, that’s like going from a trillion dollar deficit to a trillion dollar surplus
Of course, the spending miracle ended in 2001 between the 9/11 attacks and the dot-com crash. George W and the drunk sailors in Congress turned those into an even bigger deficit in just 2 years — in today’s terms, about $2 trillion.
Note Clinton didn't even do the rest of Trump's agenda; Clinton had no love for fossil fuels, regulations got much worse, sending manufacturing fleeing to Asia.
The only bright spot in the 90's was the spending. And, apparently, that was good for nearly 4% growth across the decade.
Incidentally, in the following 8 years, once W then Obama wrecked the deficit again, real growth dropped to just 2.2% -- half the Clinton number.
So 4% growth with shrinking deficits. 2.2 when the government gets hungry.
What’s Next
After 4 years of Biden's stagflation, the American people need growth.
And they want the things it takes to get growth: I mentioned a recent CNBC poll that 73% of Americans want lower government spending and 78% want lower taxes.
Three-quarter of Americans want deregulation, lower business taxes, and more oil drilling.
The challenge, of course, is Congress.
Because almost everything that grows the economy shrinks Congress' power.
So the good news is the people are on our side, and there's a way out. The bad news is it will take superhuman pressure to get Congress to do the right thing.
But if by some miracle Congress does man up, we can pull back from the abyss the Washington Uniparty drove us right up to.
Every week I write a newsletter on the top stories in economics with regular deep dives into history like the Fall of Rome, the Weimar hyperinflation, or FDR’s Great Depression.
Subscribe for free, or choose $5 monthly to help keep us on the air. And Thank You to current subscribers!
Check out my weekly podcast that rounds up all the week’s videos with interviews of key figures in liberty.
And I also make daily videos on economics and freedom, posted on X/Twitter, Youtube, and Rumble.
Can we please stop including government spending as part of GDP? At best it’s double counting the money that was already in the economy but taken and spent inefficiently from those who actually created the wealth. It’s equivalent to saying your household has more money when you give your kids an allowance.
Who are the 22% of people who don't want lower taxes? Seriously, I'd like to know.