Latin America’s populist revolt is exploding.
Giving hope to the long-suffering people of the region. While accelerating the conservative transformation of millions of US Hispanics who Democrats just got finished importing.
Last week it was Brazil, who’s done being Socialism’s lab rat with populists crushing the first round of the presidential election and now running 83% odds on Kalshi of winning outright.
Populists swept a slew of seats in Congress, doubling their Senate seats while the ruling socialists lost 2 in 3 of their senate seats
Brazil brings it to 8 out of 8 elections won by populists across Latin America since Trump defunded USAID, Washington’s left-wing tax-funded election fixing operation. Your tax dollars no longer at work.
So what’s going on, beyond USAID?
For one, it turns out socialism didn’t work. Again.
In the last decade GDP growth across the region has been stagnant at under 1% per year. Meanwhile Latin American socialists -- like Ameican socialists -- prefer to hug criminals instead of locking them up.
So incomes are stagnant, streets are unsafe. Eventually voters connect the dots.
The Models: Argentina and El Salvador
The most dramatic so far -- and models for the rest -- are Argentina and El Salvador.
In Argentina, Javier Milei inherited 300% inflation and budget deficit of 5% of GDP -- in US terms a trillion and a half. It took him literally 3 months to balance the budget, and with a year he slashed inflation 15 fold.
In El Salvador Bukele inherited one of the worst homicide rates on earth -- statistically 1 in 12 Salvadorans would be murdered at some point in their life.
He slashed it by 99 percent using the crazy idea of locking up gang members and repeat offenders. El Salvador is now safer than Canada.
Now populists across Latin America are making pilgrimages to study the Milei model and the Bukele model. Because Latino voters apparently consider not getting murdered a kitchen-table issue.
Latin America’s Endangered Socialists
Aside from communist dictatorship Cuba and Venezuela -- and junior dictatorship Nicaragua -- there’s only 3 left-wing governments left in Latin America: Uruguay, Guatemala, and Mexico.
Guatemala could flip next year, Uruguay’s not voting for a couple years, but Mexico’s the interesting one for Americans.
The good news is Mexico’s got a rising populist star in Ricardo Pliego.
The bad news is Mexico’s next election isn’t until 2030 and the ruling leftists are weakening but remain popular since they buy votes like a 1920’s Chicago machine and are riding the same anti-Trump wave as Canada’s useless PM.
Still, 2030 is a long ways, and we’ll see if Mexicans lose patience with Morena’s slow growth and high crime like the rest of the region.
What’s Next
Every ingredient of the left’s collapse will continue: economy and crime under socialists. USAID money.
This matters for the long-suffering people of latin America.
But it also matters because 1 in 7 US voters are now hispanic, and many pay close attention to what’s happening in Latin America.
When Bukele’s crime miracle or Milei’s inflation miracle are kitchen-table topics for US Hispanics it concentrates minds.
US Hispanics are already abandoning Democrats in droves: In 2016 Trump lost them by 38, in 2024 he was within 3 points.
If Latin America flips US Hispanics to Republican after Democrats imported tens of millions it would be one of the most delicious ironies in American history.
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I hadn't thought about the possibility of the rightward trend in SA influencing the immigrants from those regions. It could certainly have a profound effect.
The cartels have such a stranglehold on Mexico that I'm not sure real change can be made without assistance in removing that plague.
Aside from the excellent article, that header image is phenomenal.